Has anyone seen Doug lately? He hasn’t posted in almost two weeks, so I’m taking this opportunity (without permission) to stir the pudding a little bit.
Today it is rumored that Herman Cain is mulling the idea of dropping out of the presidential race. On hearing that, I immediately chided myself for not predicting it—you can’t win the nomination playing defense all the time.
Anything else anyone wants to bring up? I’ll leave my Republican candidate-exit predictions in the comments (where all my opinions belong.)
Update: I declare (without permission) that Big Bob will buy a drink at Sabor’s for whoever makes the best prediction.
I have been trying to make a living this week after a vacation last week. Post away Jim.
Republican exit predictions, in order:
1.
Herman Cain2. Rick Santorum
3. Rick Perry
4. Jon Huntsman
5. Michelle Bachmann
Left standing at the convention: Gingrich, Romney, Paul
Ultimate winner: Romney (sigh)
Good to hear that you are not MIA Doug!
Predictions
1.
Cain2. Huntsman
3. Santorum
4. Bachmann
5. Perry
Romney the nominee and next president.
1.
Cain2. Santorum
3. Huntsman
4. Perry
5. Bachmann
Gingrich over Romney.
1.
Cain2. Santorum
3. Huntsman
4. Doug Miller
5. Bachmann
6. Perry
Romney over Gingrich
Cain will go when his money runs out.
Huntsman will go when his dad quits paying for his campaign.
Santorum, I think he may see his polls start to rise with the exit of Cain.
Ron Paul will never drop out, and with him not running for his House seat, I worry about him moving over and running as an independent which would give the election to Obama.
Bachman will depend on how she finishes in Iowa. It’s her home state, she has to win or at least take second or she’s done. (remember Dick Gephart)
Newt was the first person I ever gave money to. In 1995 I sent him $100 and got an autographed gavel in return. I still have it somewhere in a box. His life after he left the House worries me a great deal. I still like him more than I like Romney.
Perry? He’s still in the race?
Money will be irrelevant in this race, all the way through November. All a candidate really needs to do is show up for the debates, as they seem to be the only factor moving the polls.
No matter who the candidate is, he or she will receive plenty of money for the general election. Obama will probably receive too much money, and will wear out his welcome on our television screens.
Ron Paul will announce whom he’s voting for at the convention, and then we’ll not hear from him again.
Perry already realizes that he’s lucky to have his current job, much less President. He’s already looking for a face-saving way to get back to Texas.
Bachmann is on an ego trip, and will bow out when her adoring crowds thin out.
Santorum will get crushed by socially liberal New Hampshire, and he’ll take it hard.
Cain is just a gregarious rascal who’s now trying to save his reputation and marriage.
Huntsman’s conservative bona fides will crumble when people realize he was consistently to the left of Utahns (which still looks conservative to the punditry.)
Money matters in Iowa. If you aren’t on the air there, you won’t win. I was in Illinois (but in an Iowa TV market) for Thanksgiving but didn’t watch any TV except the first half of the Cowboys game. So I couldn’t tell you who is on TV and who isn’t. Maybe one of my parents can pipe in and let us know.
I googled and googled until I found someone who agrees with me:
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/cheapest-primary-in-a-decade-defies-campaign-spending-prediction?category=%2Fnews%2Fus%2F
Excerpt: [Through September] Gingrich hasn’t run any ads in [Iowa and New Hampshire].
Gingrich currently leads the RCP average in Iowa by 11.3 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html
I rest my case. Money is irrelevant.
PerryTweets2012PerryTweets2012
Rick Perry is spending $653k on Iowa radio and TV ads this week alone. http://bit.ly/sy8Ge